Policy Pulse (July 21, 2021)

Welcome to the Policy Pulse - a breakdown summary of some of the most compelling recent reports to come out of think tanks from around the world. This edition of the Policy Pulse will be recorded as an episode of the Policy People Podcast. You can find all the links to the reports mentioned here in the show notes or in the newsletter.Thank you to Sasanka Kanuparthi for curating this edition of Policy Pulse.Can the Biden administration keep US-Turkey tensions in check?       What should the Biden administration do to maintain influence over Turkey without triggering a new crisis? Following tensions with Western powers, Turkey is now keen to stabilize relations while retaining controversial policies. Biden's rhetoric thus far has centered on the deterioration of human rights and democracy under Erdogan, his anti-LGBTQI+ stance, and crackdowns on demonstrations. However, the bilateral meeting in June reflected the optics of dialogue and was devoid of timelines on outcomes. Nicholas Danforth argues the U.S. approach must be conditional upon Turkey’s corrective actions in the future. Read more about the changing bilateral dynamics in this Brookings report.Can US assistance encourage countries to transition away from fossil fuel subsidies?Many countries are subsidizing fossil fuels to keep their local economies ticking, resulting in financial constraints and overconsumption. The Biden administration’s efforts to disincentivize domestic fuel subsidies is seen as a step towards decarbonization and meeting Paris Climate Agreement goals. Researchers believe that it could be replicated at the international level through US leadership on the issue. They analyze the impact of consumption subsidies on global fuel prices, the environment, the fiscal spending of developing economies etc. The Brookings report urges the U.S. to push for international cooperation with G20 countries, price transparency, and direct cash transfers to low-income countries. Learn more about the recommendations by reading the report. Can Australia’s economy withstand the fallout of a war over Taiwan?China’s aggressive posturing in its neighborhood continues to raise tensions across the world, and forced annexation of Taiwan could lead to counteractions by Western allies. There are widespread fears over the impact on international trade from a potential conflict, and how a war might affect navigation in the Indo-Pacific. ASPI’s David Uren details Australia’s vulnerabilities, while suggesting risk mitigation measures. He critiques the Productivity Commission’s recommendations and provides insights about Australian industry’s adaptability in finding new markets for its goods and services. Discover more on Australia’s strategic and economic preparedness in this fascinating report. Are cyber capabilities the next sphere of national power?Geostrategic competition has moved into new realms, as great powers struggle to dominate cyberspace. A dearth of academic insight into cyber power, strategic intentions, and capacities of global powers has led researchers to decipher variance in cyber governance between countries. This comprehensive two-year study from IISS compares the command-and-control structures, cyber-intel capabilities, global leadership capacities, and cybersecurity doctrines of fifteen countries and establishes robust literature on the issue. The qualitative assessment hopes to guide national governments in decision-making and strategic investments for the future. Delve deeper into the current state of cyber affairs with this report. Can the Lebanese State ever escape the influence of Hezbollah?Signaling intentions to reform while quietly manipulating Lebanon’s state functions is a classic Hezbollah strategy. This Chatham House report studies the outfit’s hybrid tactics, such as the use of state institutions, influence over the military and security forces, regulations, public contracts, financial transactions, control over illicit trade etc. Lina Khatib’s report also focuses on Hezbollah’s ability to deflect responsibilities during crises, and its control over border areas and ports. It tracks recent incidents involving corruption by port authorities vis-à-vis narcotics trade and the chemical explosion at the Port of Beirut that caused many casualties. Take a look at Lina’s report to understand the reasons behind the international scrutiny on Lebanon and Hezbollah’s influence. Will denuclearization of the Korean peninsula ever see the light of day?While the Korean peninsula has tottered on the brink of war on several occasions, it was the DPRK’s withdrawal from the non-proliferation treaty in 2003 which rang alarm bells in national capitals. Following rapid nuclear weapons development by the communist north, military escalations and mistrust has dominated the discourse. A joint US-Russian study by CENESS-Russia and IISS reviews the progress made thus far, giving an overview of Pyeongyang’s current capabilities, and its nuclear program on the whole. It cites confidence-building and reciprocal measures as a sustainable mechanism for future dialogue. To apprise yourself about the nuclear reality of Northeast Asia, take a look through this joint report. Do sub-Saharan Africans trust their governments on post-COVID recovery? As COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc across the world, its effect on African nations is relatively limited. Experts attribute several reasons for this including low infection rates, experience dealing with the Ebola epidemic, the young demography, lack of reporting etc. However, concerns over vaccine hesitancy and economic recovery post-pandemic remain unanswered, and scholars are researching the connection between trust in governments and crisis management. This GIGA report looks at the policy implications of post-COVID measures and how African nations are likely to deal with containment, mitigation, regulatory compliance, and economic revival, among others. Go through the report to gain insights into developments in sub-Saharan Africa. How prepared are international organizations to tackle the challenges of climate change?The risk assessments and strategic planning of international organizations take issues like corruption, terror financing and political instability into consideration for its ERM systems. However, responses to climate and environmental threats often feature as reactionary steps, leaving a lot of ground to be covered in shorter timespans. This Chatham House report by Oli Brown analyzes the preparedness of international organizations in initiating climate risk management measures. It assesses the climate risk approaches of 22 international organizations and offers recommendations about building effective frameworks to mitigate the impact of climate change. Oli’s report is valuable reading to those interested in climate governance and global institutions. Is the strategy for creating an agroecological Europe the best bet for its future?The European Green Deal and other biodiversity initiatives are facing roadblocks. In a bid to build sustainable food security mechanisms in production, consumption, and processing, the EU reformed agricultural policy. The paper explores the impact of overambitious agroecological policies on food imports, land use, domestic farmer issues, on account of global competition. It presents essential findings supporting the goals of the 2030 strategy, aimed, however, for 2050. This IDDRI report will pique the interest of those seeking to glimpse Europe’s transition to a plant-based diet and creation of organic produce supply chains, among other new trends.Is the plan to regulate AI a prelude to the EU’s technology geopolitics and power projection?While the EU might not be a first mover in the global technology race, it wields outsized influence over standards-setting. Its tech regulation goes far beyond its borders, the global implementation of the GDPR being a great example. What role does the EU see itself playing in disrupting power relations in the future? This ECFR report investigates the EU’s past positions on the issue, while suggesting concrete steps it can take towards building alliances and outreach mechanisms with like-minded nations, multilateral institutions, and technology players. Get a deeper understanding by reading the analysis by tech policy experts Ulrike Franke and Jose Ignacio Torreblanca.   You can listen to the episode right away in the audio player embedded above, or right below it you can click “Listen in podcast app” — which will connect you to the show’s feed. Alternatively, you can click the icons below to listen to it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Thanks again to Sasanka Kanuparthi for his work on this edition of Policy Pulse. Since Policy Pulse is a new format we’re experimenting, we’d really appreciate any suggestions or feedback, so feel free to reply to this email, leave a comment or message me on my LinkedIn profile.Stay well and stay safe,- LiamFounder of Policy People This is a public episode. 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