Imminent Scenarios in Ukraine

Guests featured in this episode:Slawomir Sierakowski, a Polish sociologist and political analyst, with extensive knowledge of not only Ukraine and Russia, but also the potential third party in the current war, Belarus. He is also the founder and editor-in-chief of the Krytyka Polityczna (Political Critique) magazine. His more than 400 articles and op-eds include not only publications in Polish, but regular monthly columns in the international edition of The New York Times and Project Syndicate, among others. GLOSSARYWhat is the “Budapest Memorandum”?(00:8:02 or p.2 in the transcript) On December 5, 1994, leaders of the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Russian Federation met in Budapest, Hungary, to pledge security assurances to Ukraine in connection with its accession to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapons state. The signature of the so-called Budapest Memorandum concluded arduous negotiations that resulted in Ukraine’s agreement to relinquish the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, which the country inherited from the collapsed Soviet Union, and transfer all nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement. The signatories of the memorandum pledged to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and inviolability of its borders, and to refrain from the use or threat of military force. Russia breached these commitments with its annexation of Crimea in 2014 and aggression in eastern Ukraine, bringing the meaning and value of security assurance pledged in the Memorandum under renewed scrutiny. Source What is Nord Stream 2 pipeline? (00:17:10 or p.4 in the transcript) The construction of the controversial natural gas pipeline Nord Stream brings gas from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany, running parallel to, and expanding the capacity of, the existing Nord Stream pipeline.  The project would allow additional Russian gas to flow directly to Germany.  Opponents  argue that it would increase Russian influence in Germany. This is a concern for Poland, the Baltic states, and the Ukraine, which also fear that they would lose out on revenue from the transport of natural gas via other existing routes. Critics also argue that a new gas pipeline does not fit with the EU’s strategy that aims at replacing fossil with renewable energy in the medium term, which would make Nord Stream 2 a stranded investment.Nord Stream 2 has been completed with some delay, but hurdles in the certification procedure and political tensions at the Ukrainian-Russian border have held up the project. Source Democracy in Question? is brought to you by:• Central European University: CEU• The Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy in Geneva: AHCD• The Podcast Company: Novel Follow us on social media!• Central European University: @CEU• Albert Hirschman Centre on Democracy in Geneva: @AHDCentreSubscribe to the show. If you enjoyed what you listened to, you can support us by leaving a review and sharing our podcast in your networks!