The Real Estate News Brief: Rate Hike Predictions, Surge in Eviction Rates, Commercial Real Estate Distress

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending June 24th, 2023... what the Fed Chief is saying about another two rate hikes, where evictions are rising the most, and how the economy is impacting commercial real estate.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell about interest rates. He testified before Congress that U.S. inflation is still too high and that more rate hikes are likely this year. He told members of the House Financial Services Committee: “Nearly all FOMC participants expect that it will be appropriate to raise interest rates somewhat further by the end of the year.” But he also says that decisions will be made “meeting by meeting” so there’s no timetable as to if or when this will happen. Most of the members are anticipating two more quarter point rate hikes. (1)   In a more positive light, Powell said that it’s possible to get inflation under control without a huge increase in unemployment. During his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, he said that he sees the labor market cooling gradually but doesn’t expect to see significant job losses. (2)   Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic is one of just two committee members who doesn’t believe the Fed should hike rates again this year. He said in an interview that interest rates should remain where they are for the time being, and that rate cuts should not happen until later “next” year. He believes the economy hasn’t yet felt the effects of previous rate cuts, and doesn’t want the Fed to make the mistake of causing a significant economic downturn. (3)   The weekly unemployment report shows that initial claims are rising, although the number of applications was flat last week. The government says that 264,000 people requested benefits which is about the same as the previous two weeks. But, the last three weeks represent the highest level we’ve seen since late 2021. (4)   Builders are feeling bullish about new home construction. Housing starts for single-family homes surged in May to a new high point for the year. The National Association of Home Builders says housing starts were up 21.7% to an annual pace of 1.63 million. Economists were expecting a decline of .8%. (5) The association’s monthly confidence index also reflects a feel-good attitude among builders. The index was up 5 points to 55 which puts it in positive territory. (6)   Meantime, the sale of existing homes rose a bit in May. Sales were up 3.8% to an annual rate of 1.08 million, but due to high mortgage rates, prices were down about 3%. It’s the largest monthly drop in existing home prices since December of 2011. (7)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates didn’t move much this last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was down 2 basis points to 6.67%. The 15-year was down 7 points to 6.03%. (8)   In other news making headlines…   Eviction Rates Are Rising in Some Cities   Rising rents and a lack of pandemic-era protections are pushing many renters into eviction proceedings. Princeton University’s Eviction Lab tracks filings in almost three dozen cities and 10 states. It reports that eviction rates are now 50% higher than they were before the pandemic. (9)   Some of the hardest hit cities include Houston with rates that were 56% higher in April, Minneapolis/St. Paul with rates that were up 106% in March, 55% in April, and 63% in May. Nashville, Phoenix, and the state of Rhode Island are also seeing a lot of evictions.    Zillow reports that national rents are up 5% from a year ago, and almost 31% from 2019. High eviction rates right now are also due to the fact that many tenants were protected from being evicted during the pandemic.   Distress Starting to Hit Commercial Real Estate   We’re beginning to see more distress in the commercial real estate market. A report from MSCI Real Assets shows about $64 billion in distress for the first quarter, and a total of about $155 billion in assets that are now at risk. (10)   Retail properties are suffering the most with about $23 billion in distress. But those problems began “before” the pandemic as stores lost business to online shopping websites. Office properties are now seeing about $18 billion in distress thanks to the rise in remote work, and leases that need to be renewed at high interest rates. Multi-families are also seeing some amount of distress. Delinquency rates for multifamily loans from major investment groups hit the 3% level at the end of the first quarter.    That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links at newsforinvestors.com. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   I also encourage you to join RealWealth at newsforinvestors.com. It’s free to join and will give you access to information about how you can build wealth with single-family rentals. Membership will also connect you to our experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, 1031 exchange facilitators, attorneys, CPAs and more.   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-tells-congress-to-expect-higher-interest-rates-5ee9ffc0?mod=federal-reserve   2 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-he-sees-path-where-inflation-cools-without-significant-job-losses-d132327a?mod=mw_latestnews   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/fed-should-leave-interest-rates-unchanged-for-the-rest-of-the-year-bostic-says-43d83606   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-hit-highest-level-since-late-2021-2650a966   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/housing-starts-surge-as-builders-rev-up-single-family-home-construction-in-may-while-a-housing-shortage-drags-on-fe6838ea?mod=economic-report   6 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builders-turn-bullish-for-the-first-time-in-nearly-a-year-amid-strong-housing-demand-81f5c7b9?mod=economic-report   7 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-existing-home-prices-suffer-largest-drop-since-december-2011-56fe5258?mod=u.s.-economic-calendar   8 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   9 - https://apnews.com/article/evictions-homelessness-affordable-housing-landlords-rental-assistance-dc4a03864011334538f82d2f404d2afb   10 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/capital-markets/report-distressed-cre-now-tops-64b-119503