117. Black Swans - What Are They? What Do They Mean? Can You Prepare for Them?

In this episode, Nick and Chris discuss black swan events, which are rare and unpredictable events with significant consequences.
They explore the criteria for a black swan event and provide examples such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 9/11 terrorist attacks. They also discuss the predictability of these events and the impact they have on society and the global order.
The conversation explores the concept of black swan events and their impact on history and society. It discusses various examples of black swan events, including the South Sudan basketball team playing the wrong national anthem, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
The conversation also touches on the US intelligence community's Global Trends reports, which predict future trends and potential black swan events. It concludes with a discussion on the limitations of predicting and preparing for black swan events.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction and Multilingual Podcast
01:17 Marvel Casting Robert Downey Jr.: A Cry for Help?
06:16 The Concept of Black Swan Events
14:09 Examples of Black Swan Events: 2008 Financial Crisis
19:00 Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Definition of Black Swan Events
23:45 9/11: A Black Swan Event
28:03 Introduction to Black Swan Events
29:58 Examples of Black Swan Events
36:29 The Role of US Intelligence in Predicting Black Swan Events
45:19 Geomagnetic Storms and Other Potential Black Swan Events
47:42 The Consequences of US Disengagement