Can the Entire World Thrive on Renewable Energy?

Adventures in Sustainable Living Podcast
 
Episode 94
 
Can the Entire World Thrive on Renewable Energy?
 
 
As you may well know, talks of climate change are becoming increasingly serious. Updates are in the news almost daily so it is difficult to ignore. Furthermore, there are some new books soon to be published on the topic that paint a pretty grim outlook for our future on this planet. 
 
In 2018, 89% of greenhouse gas emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels and from industry. Although the use of coal seems to be fading, the use of other fossil fuels are replacing it. So, why are we not pushing the transition to renewables? Is there a problem? Can the entire world actually thrive on renewable energy? 
 
Welcome back everyone to the Adventures in Sustainable Living Podcast. This is your host Patrick and this is E94 which is called Can the Entire World Thrive on Renewable Energy? 
 
Before we get started I would like to once again remind everyone that if you want to contact me with questions, comments, or even suggestions on topics of interest, please feel free to contact me at adventuresinsustainableliving@gmail.com. 
 
So, let’s get started on this week’s topic of whether or not the world can actually thrive on renewable energy.  
 
You know I have to say that whenever I look at the state of humanity I always seem to ask the question of how did we get where we are today? And in answering that question, I also find it interesting to look at a little bit of human history. And in this case, how did we even get started with using fossil fuels and how did it become a problem? 
 
It is believed that about 4,000 years ago someone in northern China discovered this odd black rock that would actually burn. Since there was no electricity or gas for heating or cooking meals, this rock that would burn was a huge discovery. Archeologist now believe this to be the first time humans used fossil fuels and that black rock was called coal. 
 
For many years, few people had easy access to coal. However, in Britain people were actually able to walk along the beach and pick up what they called “sea coal.” The Romans commonly used coal as well because traces of it can be found around Roman ruins in Italy. 
 
Coal started to become very popular in London in the 1200s. Due to a growing population, it became much more difficult to find firewood for cooking and heating. Eventually it was the invention of the steam engine in the late 1600s that lead up to the Industrial Revolution that literally changed the course of history. 
 
The first appearance of the word “electric” or “electricity” was in 1646. And for the next couple of hundred years, scientist struggled with the practical application of this new discovery. But it was Thomas Edison that finally produced a reliable long-lasting light bulb in 1879. Even after that, progress was slow. Even in 1925 only 50% of the homes in the United States actually had electricity. 
 
The period of about 1870 to 1910 is often thought of as the Second Industrial Revolution. This is when fertilizers and other chemicals, electricity, and advances in public health further accelerated growth and consequently the use of fossil fuels. 
 
So, it is at least interesting to see how humanity has transitioned in using more and more fossil fuels. But if you remember from previous episodes, the first seminal paper on climate change was published in 1896. And in 1938 Guy Stewart Callendar, an English steam engineer and inventor, first linked rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere to global warming. And this discovery was even before the electrification of homes in the United States was complete. 
 
We already know that the burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause of climate change. Despite the accumulation of huge amounts of scientific data, it wasn’t until the 1970s that scientist began to produce climate models. This was due to advances in computer technology that made it possible to construct such models.
 
So why is it that fossil fuels are a bad thing? Well, fossil fuels are formed from the decomposition of buried carbon-based organisms that died millions of years ago. They form carbon-rich deposits that are extracted and burned for energy. Because fossil fuels are renewable only on a geological time scale, as far as humans are concerned, this resource is non-renewable. Fossil fuels currently supply about 80% of the worlds energy in the form of coal, oil, and gas. 
 
 
 
We also know that coal is by far the worse offender. Of the  three fossils fuels that we use, coal produces that most pollution and releases the biggest share of CO2. Oil is also responsible for about 30% of the worlds CO2 emissions. And while natural gas is often promoted as a cleaner fuel sources, it is still a fossil fuel that accounts for a fifth of the world’s total carbon emissions. 
 
Just recently I have come across several articles discussing at length the reasons for the decline in the use of coal. So this is at least an improvement. But one of the reasons is that the cost of natural gas has gone down by 60% since 2003. In another article that highlighted our future source of electricity, the primary focus was on the increased use of natural gas. So, even now, in the face of potentially devastating shifts in the Earth’s climate, we are still talking fossil fuels.
 
The whole point of producing this timeline is simply to show how humanity has transitioned. It started with small settlements where wood was the primary source of heating and cooking. As cities grew we slowly transitioned to using more and more fossil fuels. All of this took place over the course of thousands of years. 
 
So, here is the challenge. It took thousands of years to get us where we are today. During that time, humanity has made several significant transitions in how we use energy. We are now on the cusp of another enormous transition that will alter the very way we live on a day-to-day basis. Not only that, but this transition needs to happen not over thousands of years but over the next 30 years. 
 
So, instead of discussing how we are going to phase out coal and promote the use of more natural gas, I think it is time to change the whole conversation. The conversation needs to focus on how we are going to make a complete transition to renewable energy. This is possible with available technology and will not require some sort of miraculous break through. Furthermore, this transition is a major step toward effective climate protection which is the only way to save a planet worth living on for generations to come.  
 
So, back to the main focus of this episode. By 2050 the population of the world is expected to be 7.2 billion. Is it possible for the entire world to thrive on renewable energy? So let’s look at that possibility. 
 
First of all, this transition is possible by complete electrification across all energy sectors: power, heat, transportation, and in some parts of the world, desalination plants for water. We already have the technology to make this happen. For example,  I have stated in previous episodes that the entire United States could be powered by a solar array of 21,000 square miles, which is less than one half of one percent of the available land in the U.S. 
 
If this were to happen, fossil fuels would be phased out completely and any remaining fuel needs would be either electricity based or biofuels. Furthermore, almost all of our energy would come from local and regional generation. This would produce an increase in energy security. 
 
It is entirely possible that our energy demands could be met from a mix of renewable sources. Solar could produce almost 70%, wind energy could supply almost 20%. Waste, biomass, hydro, and geothermal could supply the remaining 10%. Not only that, it has been proven that the long term costs of such an energy system would be far less than our current fossil fuel dependent system. The reason is that over time the levelized cost of renewables would simply be dominated by capital costs because fuel costs would no longer be a deciding factor. 
 
Even with our present energy storage capabilities, we can meet approximately 25% of our electricity and heat demands. Battery storage can and will become an important technology to power our homes. 
 
Additionally, as our global water crisis advances, it is possible to meet demands by substantially increasing our desalination capabilities. All of this could be supported completely by renewable energy sources. 
 
Now, all of this being said, by necessity there will be regional differences in energy production. This is affected by locally available resources. The so called Sun Belt countries will have solar as their primary sources of electricity. Other locations that are more suited for wind energy, will have a  larger share of off and on-shore wind generated electricity. Other countries will take advantage of easily available geothermal. 
 
But all of this of course will come at a cost. Despite that, even the United Nations has noted that “without renewable energy there is no future.” But the good news is that the UN has outlined 5 critical ways to jump-start our transition to renewable energy. 
 
 
Make Renewable Energy a Global Public Good
 
The first step is to make renewable energy a global public good. What this means is that renewable energy is available to everyone, not just the wealthy. In order for this to happen we must be willing to share technology, perhaps even intellectual property rights simply for the greater good.  
 
Improve Global Access to Essential Components and Raw Materials 
 
Another key step is to have widespread access to all essential components and raw materials. This will take significant international coordination in order to expand and diversify global manufacturing capability. Another essential part of this is training people with new skills, research and innovation, and numerous incentives to build supply chains with sustainable practices. 
 
We Must Level the Playing Field for Renewable Energy Technology
 
One other thing that we need to do is to change domestic policy in order to stream-line renewable energy projects and greatly encourage private investments. This is possible by making the planning, permitting and regulatory processes more streamlined which will greatly speed up the production and implementation of renewable energy. 
 
Shift energy subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy
 
Did you know that without subsidies for fossil fuels we would all be paying about $12.75 for a gallon of gas. So, in many ways, world governments subsidize the production of fossil fuels 
which lowers the cost of the fuels paid by the consumer. But it is these very subsidies that are one of the biggest financial barriers hampering the world’s shift to renewable energy. 
 
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that about $5.9 trillion was spent on subsidizing the fossil fuel industry in 2020 alone Theses subsidies included explicit payouts, tax breaks, and health and environmental damages that were not priced into the cost of fossil fuels. That equals approximately $11 billion a day.
 
This is something we need to change. In developing countries, 
about half of the public resources spent to support fossil fuel consumption benefits the richest 20 percent of the population.  
 
Shifting subsidies from fossil fuels to renewable energy would accomplish numerous things around the globe. It would cut emissions, produce sustainable economic growth, create jobs, and improve public health. Additionally, it would produce more equality particularly for the poor and most vulnerable communities around the world.
 
Triple Investments in Renewables
 
And the last key factor that the UN sees is that we need to increase our investments in renewable energy sources, to the tune of $4 trillion per year until 2030. Now that of course is on a global scale. At first that may seem like a steep price to pay, but  we are already spending $11 billion per day to subsidize fossil fuel production that is destroying our planet. But this includes investments in technology and infrastructure. But, the UN further states that this investment would pay off. The savings in climate impact and reduction in pollution could save the world as much as $4.2 trillion per year. 
 
 
 
 
Summary
 
So, let’s just take a moment and consider what we have discussed so far.  
 
-We started with a discussion of how humanity started using fossil fuels. 
 
-Our increased use of fossil fuels was slow are first. But with the Industrial Revolution, that process sped up considerably. 
 
-A Second Industrial Revolution came along because of the availability of cheap fuel. 
 
-Well before electricity even became available in every US home, scientist had already realized that we were changing the climate due to our use of fossil fuels.
 
-Complex computer models of potential climate change were first available in the 1970s due to advances in computer technology. 
 
-Despite increasing concern over climate change, we are still discussing the on-going use of fossil fuels. Consequently, it is time to change our entire conversation because it is now obvious that our best chances for a productive future on this planet is a transition to renewable energy.
 
-The good news is that it is entirely possible for the world to thrive on renewable energy. We have the technology, the capability, and the funding to make that transition.
 
-There are 5 keys things that can make that happen: 1) Renewable energy must be a global public good meaning it is available to everyone. 2)There must be improved access to essential components and raw materials which will require a considerable amount of international cooperation. 3) We must level the playing field and stream line the permitting and manufacturing process in order to speed up development of renewable energy project. 4) We must shift subsidies from fossil fuels 5) We must triple our investment in renewables which is entirely possible. 
 
 
So, despite everything you hear transitioning the world to 100% renewable energy is possible. In fact, this transition is not a question of technical feasibility or economic viability. It is truly a question of political will. 
 
But besides the obvious benefits for the climate that such a transition would produce, there are significant political and economic implications.  
 
-We would no longer be affected by the price of oil on the global energy market. 
-There would no longer be any sort of conflict over oil and gas supply. 
-Food prices would no longer be affected by transportation costs. 
-Countries with an over abundance of oil would no longer be in control of the world energy market.
-A transition to renewables would eliminate international energy dependencies and the conflict that so often surrounds this dependence. This would produce energy security around the world and lead to a more peaceful and prosperous global community. 
-Such an energy system would create local and regional job security and consequently economic prosperity. 
-Electricity generation would be on a regional basis which would produce energy security. 
-A sustainable energy system is more efficient and cost effective than our exiting system. 
-Over time, renewable systems would actually bring down the cost of energy worldwide.
-And finally, a transition to a global renewable energy system, and almost completely eliminating the use of fossil fuels, is by far the best option for climate protection and ensuring that we have a livable planet for generations to come. 
 
We can solve this problem despite the fact that human activities are causing changes on a planetary scale. The key to tackling this crisis is eliminating our dependence on fossil fuels. As the Secretary General of the United Nations stated,”…without renewables there can be no future.” But the good news is that  the lifeline that we need is right in front of us. 
 
Okay folks that is all for this week. I hope you have enjoyed this episode. If so, please take the time to leave me with a review and please subscribe to the Adventures in Sustainable Living podcast as well as my companion blog Off Grid Living News. 
 
Please join me next week for another exciting episode. But for now, this is your host Patrick signing off. Always remember to live sustainably because this is how we build a better future.  
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Resources 
 
 
Three Reasons US Coal Power is Disappearing 
 
Five Ways to jump-start the renewable energy transition now 
 
Where Will We Get Our Electricity in 2034? 
 
Sources of Greenhouse Gas Emissions 
 
Fossil Fuels and Climate Change: the facts 
 
When Was Electricity Widely Used? 
 
Timeline of Global Warming 
 
Use of Fossil Fuels, NASA
 
 
 
 
 
 
Patrick