230 - Biofuel displacing diesel | Kunal Patel from the Dallas Fed

Biofuels are displacing petroleum-based distillate fuel oil consumption on the West Coasthttps://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57040- renewable diesel = diesel made from - biodiesel used as well- petroleum distillate consumption down on west coast in 2022 but biodiesel consumption up- unique to west coastNATIONAL AVERAGE SEES LITTLE CHANGE, GASOLINE DEMAND PLUMMETS AFTER SURGING FOR JULY 4- Gasoline demand soared on July 4 but declined since then- Gasoline prices went down going into July 4 but have basically remained stable since then- "Implied gasoline demand, a proxy for retail demand, unsurprisingly jumped to 9.6 million barrels as motorists hit the road for July 4."- "gasoline inventories fell 2.5 million barrels" Oil dips on Chinese and U.S. data, but OPEC+ cuts limit fallhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-eases-ahead-china-us-data-opec-cuts-support-market-2023-07-10/- Lots of Chinese data coming out later this week- Will the market tighten in H2 2023? China's economy will turn around at some point, but will it be this year? - China's trade with US and Europe is down but is Russia really a replacement? Depends who you ask.Iran Seizes Commercial Tanker in Persian Gulfhttps://www.voanews.com/a/iran-seizes-commercial-tanker-in-persian-gulf-/7170938.html- Military incident in Persian Gulf including US Navy firing on Iranian vessels did not cause oil market to jump at all- Do people not care about tanker security in the Persian Gulf anymore?Special Guest Kunal Patel from the Dallas FedQ2 Energy Surveyhttps://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/des/2023/2302- price forecasts of producers are different from other industries. Think price will be in $80s by end of year- credit conditions: 24% of small E&Ps said credit conditions are having a major impact. Large E&Ps have more sources of credit.- costs in the oilfield: the larger the firm you are, the more pricing power you have, both with services and materials- larger firms can take advantage to get lower costs but smaller E&Ps are still facing higher costs- potential decreases in cost in H2- Contracts with rigs and suppliers are the issue - if firms locked in contracts in 2022 then prices are higher even if prices are going down now. When the contracts were signed is driving the costs- Oil producers in the US think that global oil consumption has slightly underperformed this year what they expected at the start of the year. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com