第2230期:Climate Change Made Brazil’s Floods Twice as Likely

A team of international researchers says that climate change made recent flooding in southern Brazil twice as likely to happen.一个国际研究团队表示，气候变化使巴西南部最近发生的洪水发生的可能性增加了一倍。It also said that the El Niño Pacific Ocean current made the rains in Brazil more severe.他们还表示，厄尔尼诺太平洋洋流使巴西的降雨更加严重。Last month, flooding killed more than 170 people and displaced nearly 580,000 in Brazil's southern state of Rio Grande do Sul. Local officials said it was the worst disaster in the area's history.上个月，洪水在巴西南部的南大河州造成170多人死亡，近58万人流离失所。当地官员称这是该地区历史上最严重的灾难。A network of experts called World Weather Attribution said that the heavy rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul was an “extremely rare” event. The group said it expects such an event to happen only once every 100 to 250 years. However, the group added, it would have been even rarer without the effects of burning fossil fuel.一个名为世界天气归因的专家网络表示，南大河州的强降雨是一个“极其罕见”的事件。该组织称，这种事件预计每100到250年才会发生一次。然而，该组织补充说，如果没有燃烧化石燃料的影响，这种事件会更为罕见。The experts at World Weather Attribution also said the flooding was six to nine percent more severe than it would have been without climate change. The experts combined weather observations with results from climate models to make their estimates.世界天气归因的专家还表示，洪水比没有气候变化的情况下严重了六到九个百分点。专家们结合天气观测和气候模型的结果进行了估算。Lincoln Alves is with Brazil’s space research center INPE. Alves said, "The climate in Brazil has already changed." He said that the study "confirms that human activities have contributed to more intense and frequent extreme events…” He added that the flooding showed Brazil's vulnerability to climate change.林肯·阿尔维斯（Lincoln Alves）在巴西空间研究中心（INPE）工作。阿尔维斯说，“巴西的气候已经发生了变化。”他表示，这项研究“证实了人类活动对更强烈和更频繁的极端事件有所贡献……”他补充说，这次洪水显示了巴西对气候变化的脆弱性。The researchers said that the El Niño Pacific Ocean current also played a part in the flooding in Brazil. Experts say the El Niño phenomenon contributes to higher temperatures in many parts of the world. It also brings increased rainfall and flood risk to parts of the Americas.研究人员表示，厄尔尼诺太平洋洋流也在巴西的洪水中起了作用。专家说，厄尔尼诺现象导致世界许多地方气温升高，还给美洲部分地区带来了更多的降雨和洪水风险。The scientists added that failure of important infrastructure, deforestation, and the fast growth of cities helped to increase the effects of the disaster. The flooding affected Porto Alegre, the capital of Rio Grande do Sul. The city is home to 1.3 million people.科学家们补充说，重要基础设施的失效、森林砍伐和城市的快速增长加剧了灾害的影响。洪水影响了南大河州的首府阿雷格里港。该市有130万人口。Regina Rodrigues is a researcher at the Federal University of Santa Catarina. She said that good flood protection infrastructure and the right urban planning are needed to reduce the effect of "such extreme events.”雷吉娜·罗德里格斯（Regina Rodrigues）是圣卡塔琳娜联邦大学的研究员。她表示，需要良好的防洪基础设施和正确的城市规划来减少“此类极端事件”的影响。