Thursday, September 19th, 2024

Scott Seidenberg, Steve Fezzik & Mackenzie Rivers preview TNF between the Jets and the Patriots. Plus a look at the MLB Postseason races and games of note.
Jets vs Patriots: Thursday Night Football Breakdown
In the latest Straight Outta Vegas AM (02:34), Scott Seidenberg and Steve Fezzik previewed the highly anticipated New York Jets vs. New England Patriots matchup. The Jets are six-and-a-half-point favorites in this crucial Week 3 divisional game, taking place at MetLife Stadium. Here’s the breakdown:
Key Injuries and Team Insights
Seidenberg (0:34) outlined how New England faces significant challenges with injuries, especially on the offensive line. Fezzik (03:05) emphasized that the Patriots have cluster injuries, including their left tackle Lowe, center David Andrews (hip), and right tackle Mike Oquenze. This is a major disadvantage for the Patriots as they face a Jets team that is, despite a tough schedule, well-rested.
Fezzik confidently leaned toward the Jets, calling New England the worst team in the NFL (1:49), noting their lack of depth and early-season struggles. He dismissed any notion that New England’s recent performances were anything to write home about.
Betting Strategy and Prop Bets
Seidenberg took a deeper look into player performance and prop bets (05:14). He highlighted Alan Lazard as a key player to watch, picking him to go over two and a half catches. He noted that the Patriots have struggled to defend the slot, and Lazard, a trusted target for Aaron Rodgers, will likely see plenty of opportunities. Given the Patriots’ blitz-heavy approach and inability to defend against slot receivers, Seidenberg believes Lazard will have a breakout game.
When discussing betting strategies (04:18), Fezzik warned against teasing the spread. He instead recommended finding the best money line price for the Jets at sportsbooks like Circa and DraftKings, where it was sitting at -260.
Statistics Supporting the Jets
A significant factor in favor of the Jets is the historical performance of teams in New England’s current situation. Fezzik cited that teams coming off an overtime game with less than five days’ rest have a dismal record against the spread (07:04), standing at 3-21 over the past 20 years.
Additionally, Seidenberg highlighted how New England’s high blitz rate won’t likely affect Aaron Rodgers, who has one of the fastest release times in the NFL. This quick passing game will allow Rodgers to exploit the Patriots’ weak slot defense.
Conclusion: Jets for the Win
Both Seidenberg and Fezzik are confident in a Jets victory. The combination of the Patriots' injuries, their poor historical performance on short rest, and the Jets’ superior passing game makes this Thursday Night Football clash a favorable one for New York. Betting on the Jets to cover the six-and-a-half-point spread or focusing on prop bets like Lazard’s receptions could be a smart move.
Summary:


Jets Favored: Jets are six-and-a-half-point favorites, facing an injury-plagued Patriots team.


Injury Issues: Patriots' offensive line is crippled, with key players out, hurting their chances.


Short Week Impact: Jets should not be impacted by the short week as it's early in the season.


Prop Bet Pick: Alan Lazard is projected to go over two and a half catches, with the Patriots struggling to defend the slot.


Teaser Caution: Avoid teasing the spread; money line bets may offer better value.


Historical Trends: Teams like New England, coming off an overtime game with short rest, have a 3-21 ATS record over the past 20 years.


Rodgers’ Quick Release: Aaron Rodgers' fast release will exploit the Patriots' blitz-heavy defense and weak slot coverage.


Betting Strategy: Shop around for the best money line on the Jets to maximize returns.


Confidence in the Jets: Both analysts are confident the Jets will win and cover the spread.


Jets’ Passing Game: The Jets' passing game, particularly Lazard, will be key to their success against the Patriots.




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